Experts predict Super Bowl winners based on factors such as team performance, previous matchups, injuries and team morale. Professional oddsmakers use all of these factors along with experience and intuition to place odds on a team winning. Oddsmakers also attempt to influence public perception of odds to keep betting on both sides even.
Oddsmakers analyze teams’ previous performances, both recently and throughout past seasons, to determine odds of winning. Certain teams or players may have previously demonstrated an inability to perform under pressure, which can affect experts’ predictions. Oddsmakers also consider how the two teams have fared in their previous matchups. If one team has consistently dominated previous games, they may be favored to win.
Injuries are another major factor in predicting Super Bowl winners. Teams with significant injuries, particularly among important players, are typically less favored to win than healthy teams. Similarly, team morale also factors into ratings. A team whose star player has recently been injured, for example, may have significantly lowered morale, affecting experts’ predictions of their ability to win.
Oddsmakers also rely on less tangible factors, such as intuition and their own experience. Betting experts’ reputations are based on their ability to accurately predict Super Bowl winners, so they work to analyze every aspect of the game. Oddsmakers also try to keep betting ratios even so that bookies make money. If betting becomes one-sided, they may change the odds or spread to adjust the betting ratio.