How Does Jeff Sagarin Comes up With Basketball Statistics?

How Does Jeff Sagarin Comes up With Basketball Statistics?

Jeff Sagarin comes up with different types of basketball ratings and statistics and his method for each varies. For instance, he bases ratings and schedule strengths on the games between Division I teams by looking at their performance in each game.

When Jeff Sagarin comes up with his schedule predictions, he looks at what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to win at least 50 percent of its games. The mathematical formula takes into account the rating of each opponent and whether the game is home or away. The formula he uses for these computations is called the Win50percent.

To calculate college rankings, Sagarin comes up with three different groups: central mean, simple average and Win50percent. The central mean gives the most weight to the middle teams. The simple average gives equal weight to each team's performance. Once these two figures are determined, Sagarin computes the Win50percent formula that is required of the team to win 50-percent of its games.

When making predictions Sagarin compares the ratings of the teams and allows for an additional three points for the home team.

Jeff Sagarin uses these and other formulas when computing statistics and win probabilities for basketball, hockey, baseball, college and pro football NASCAR and MLS Soccer.