How Do U.S. Government Bond Rate Yields Compare Over Time?


Quick Answer

Between 1912 and 2015, the 10-year U.S. government bond averaged 6.32 percent, according to Trading Economics. The bond hit highs of 15.82 percent in September 1981, sunk to lows of 1.04 percent in July 2012, and rose to 2.09 percent in May 2015.

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Historical data on U.S. government bonds is also available at Bloomberg.com and Investing.com, among other websites. Trading Economics expects the 10-year U.S. government bond to hit 2.24 percent in the second quarter of 2015 and eventually rise to 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2015.

In 2014, the iShare 20-year bond Exchange Traded Fund, which tracks U.S. treasury bonds, gained 23.6 percent, outperforming stock market indices such as the S&P 500, which gained just 11.4 percent, explains Forbes. Analysts considered this rise surprising, as bond prices should have fallen in response to the U.S. Federal Reserve's tapering of its massive bond-buying program.

The unusual rally in treasury bond prices spilled over into 2015, notes Forbes. Global buyers fueled the rise by seeking a safe haven from weakening economies elsewhere. However, the rally has caused treasury bond prices to rise above their long term 200-day moving average, an indication of being overbought and overextended. This may eventually lead to a fall in bond prices and yields, reports Forbes.

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