The total turnout of the referendum was 86.5%. 55.5 percent voted in favour and 44.5 were against breaking the state union with Serbia. Fifty-five percent of affirmative votes were needed to dissolve the state union of Serbia and Montenegro, an option favored by the coalition government (DPS and SDP).
By 23 May, preliminary referendum results were recognized by all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, indicating widespread international recognition of Montenegro once independence would be formally declared.
Montenegro's referendum commission on Wednesday 31 May, officially confirmed the results of the independence referendum, verifying that 55.5% of the population of Montenegrin voters had voted in favor of independence. Because voters met the controversial threshold requirement of 55% approval set by the EU, the referendum was incorporated into a declaration of independence during a special parliamentary session on 31 May. The Assembly of the Republic of Montenegro made a formal Declaration of Independence on Saturday 3 June.
In response to the announcement, the government of Serbia declared itself the legal and political successor of Serbia and Montenegro, and that the government and parliament of Serbia itself will soon adopt a new constitution. The European Union, the United States, the People's Republic of China, Russia, and neighbouring Croatia all expressed their intentions to respect the referendum results.
It is also specified that the member state which secedes forfeits any rights to political and legal continuity of the federation. This means that the seceding state (in this case the Republic of Montenegro) had to apply for membership to all major international institutions, such as the United Nations and be recognized by the international community, and that the Republic of Serbia became the full successor to the state union. No state objected to recognizing a newly formed state prior to the referendum.
Changes to the Montenegrin Constitution, which involved changes of the state status, required dissolving the Parliament when the bill is passed, and convocation of the new one within 90 days. The new Parliament had to adopt, with a two third majority, such changes to the Constitution, or draft a new Constitution..
The newly-independent country of Serbia, which is the successor state to the state union of Serbia and Montenegro, while favouring a loose federation, has stated publicly that it would respect the outcome of the referendum, and not interfere with Montenegrin sovereignty.
Milo Đukanović, Prime Minister of Montenegro, promised that he would declare the independence if the votes passed 50%, regardless of whether the census was passed or not. On the other hand, he also announced that if less than 50% voted for the independence option, he would resign from all political positions. The original pursue of the Milo Đukanović and the DPS-SDP was that 40% was a sufficient majority to declare independence, but this caused severe international outrage before the Independentists proposed 50%.
Another controversial issue was the referendum law, which relied on the constitution of Serbia and Montenegro, which, again, stated that Montenegrins living within Serbia that are voters in Serbia would not be allowed to vote in the referendum because that would give them two votes in the union and make them superior to other citizens.
When the video became public, two DPS activists claimed they were victims of manipulation and that the member of the secret police talked them into doing so. Mašan Bušković, the target of the alleged attempted bribe, on the other hand said the video is authentic and that it portrays events exactly as they occurred.
A controversy emerged in the Independentist Bloc, as non-governmental organizations had officially joined and campaigned as its members, which was illegal, thus breaking the Law:
The Sovereignist Camp concentrated on history and national minority rights. Montenegro was recognized an independent country on the 1878 Congress of Berlin. Its independence was extinguished in 1918 when its assembly declared union with Serbia. The minor ethnic groups are promised full rights in an independent Montenegro, with their languages being included into the new Constitution.
The camp's leader was Montenegro's controversial national leader Milo Đukanović.
The Unionists' Logo was Montenegro is Not for Sale! and For Love - Love Connects, Heart says NO!.
The Unionist Camp or "Bloc for Love", Together for Change political alliance's campaign relied mostly on assertion and support of the European Union, pointing out essential present as well as historical links with Serbia. They criticized that the ruling coalition is trying to turn Montenegro into a private state, a crime haven. It's campaign concentrated on pointing out "love" for union with Serbia. 73% of Montenegrin citizens has close cousins in Serbia and 78% of Montenegrin citizens has close friends in Serbia. According to TNS Medium GALLUP's research, 56.9% of the Montenegrin population believed if union with Serbia is broken health care would fall apart. 56.8% believed they wouldn't be able to go to schools in Serbia anymore and 65.3% thought it won't be able to find a job in Serbia as it intends to.
The key camp's leader was opposition leader Predrag Bulatović.
According to the first estimates at 21:00 (CET), when the voting stations closed, 86.5% of eligible voters – or 419,240 voters (404,840 in and 14,400 outside voting places) out of 484,718 eligible (in 1,124 voting areas) – voted, local NGO organisations monitoring the referendum said. 3,577 (0.85% or 0.74% of the electorate) votes were found invalid, so declared 415,663 (99.15%) were published as the final valid turnout (85.75%). 404,840 (96.56% or 83.5% of the electorate) citizens of Montenegro voted at their places, while 14,400 (3.43% or 2.97% of the electorate) voted abroad Serbia and Montenegro, most of whom supported independence.
Two organisations that were conducting a Quick Count, Montenegrin CDT and Serbian CeSID, had different projections of the referendum results.
CeSID's initial projections were giving YES option significant advantage, but as the evening progressed, they were correcting their projection and lowering advantage of the YES option. This caused serious confusion among general public and sparked journalists to challenge CeSID projections. After CeSID's announcement, thousands of people began to celebrate in the streets of every major city. However, after the CDT announcement, the public began to realize how close the result was.
CDT stated that the results were too close to call. This was later confirmed with the official results, since only about 2,000 votes were over the required threshold (the votes of some 2 or 3 polling stations). They urged the public to remain calm and give time to the referendum commission to finish their job.
Montenegrin prime minister Milo Đukanović first delayed his appearance in public, after learning how close the result was. He finally appeared on Montenegrin television at about 01:40 CEST and said that after 99.85% of the votes had been counted, the percentage of votes for independence was 55.5%, and the remaining votes (6,236) could not change the outcome of the referendum.
On the other side, de facto leader of the unionist bloc Predrag Bulatović said at a press conference around 00:15 CEST that "his sources" informed him that 54% had voted "yes", a figure below the 55% threshold. Predrag Bulatović had announced earlier that he would resign as opposition leader if the referendum was won by those favouring independence.
František Lipka, the referendum commission president or Chairman of the Electoral Commission announced on Monday the 22 May 2006 that the preliminary results were 55.4% in favor of independence. Prime Minister of the Republic of Montenegro Milo Đukanović held a press conference later that day. The press conference took place at 14:30, at the Congress Hall of the Government of the Republic of Montenegro.
Due to the fact that about 19,000 votes were still disputed, the Electoral Commission delayed the announcement of final results. The opposition demanded a full recount of the votes but this was rejected by the Commission and European observers, who stated that they were satisfied and they were sure that the votehad been free and fair. On 23 May2006, the Electoral Commission released the final results which stated that 230,661 (55.02% of those who voted, 55.49% of the valid votes; 47.59% of the electorate) Montenegrins had voted for independence, while 185.002 (44.13% of those who voted, 44.51% of the valid votes; 38.17% of the electorate) voted against. The turnout was 86.49% of registered voters (85.75% valid).
The distribution of votes was as follows: majority (around 60%-up to around 70%) were against independence in regions bordering Serbia and Republika Srpska. The highest No vote was in Serb-majority Plužine municipality with 75.70%. In the authentic Montenegrin regions (former Principality of Montenegro), there was a light majority (around 50-60%) for independence, with the Cetinje municipality, traditional centre of old Montenegro, having a huge percentage in favour of independence (over 86.38%). At the coastal regions, Herceg Novi municipality, which has a Serb majority had voted 61.34% against independence, the middle southern region(Tivat, Kotor, Budva and Bar) being in favour of independence, and the south, Ulcinj municipality, an ethnic Albanian centre, voted strongly in favour of independence (88.50%). The regions bordering Albania and Kosovo that have mostly Bosniak, Muslim and Albanian population, were heavily in favour of independence (78.92% in Plav, 91.33% in Rožaje). Municipalities in Montenegro that voted for the Union were Andrijevica, Berane, Kolašin, Mojkovac, Plužine, Pljevlja, Herceg-Novi, Šavnik, and Žabljak. The municipalities that voted for independence were Bar, Bijelo Polje, Budva, Cetinje, Danilovgrad, Kotor, Nikšić, Plav, Podgorica, Rožaje, Tivat, and Ulcinj.
The Independentist Bloc won thanks to the high votes of Albanians and to an extent Bosniaks. The highest pro-independendist percentage was in Albanian-populated Ulcinj and Bosniak-populated Rožaje.. This fact was, and still is being used by some of the Montenegrin and Serbian media and critics structures in Serbia and Montenegro to complain about and denounce the results of the referendum. Truth is, however, that the independentists won by around 2,000 votes, and that this is exactly the same number Montenegrin diaspora Albanians that flew from the United States of America to vote for braking the state union. This became especially controversial, taking to granted that over 200,000 Montenegrin diaspora Serbs were not allowed to vote.
|Andrijevica||1,084 (27.6%)||2,824 (71.89%%)||4,369||3,928 (89.91%)|
|Bar||16,640 (63.07%)||9,496 (35.99%)||32,255||26,382 (81.79%)|
|Berane||11,268 (46.85%)||12,618 (52.46%)||28,342||24,051 (84.86%)|
|Bijelo Polje||19,405 (55.36%)||15,437 (44.04%)||40,110||35,051 (87.39%)|
|Budva||5,908 (52.75%)||5,180 (46.25%)||12,797||11,200 (87.52%)|
|Danilovgrad||5,671 (53.15%)||4,887 (45.81%)||11,784||10,669 (90.54%)|
|Žabljak||1,188 (38.37%)||1,884 (60.85%)||3,407||3,096 (90.87%)|
|Kolašin||2,852 (41.82%)||3,903 (57.23%)||7,405||6,820 (92.1%)|
|Kotor||8,200 (55.04%)||6,523 (43.79%)||17,778||14,897 (83.79%)|
|Mojkovac||3,016 (43.55%)||3,849 (55.57%)||7,645||6,926 (90.59%)|
|Nikšić||26,387 (52.01%)||23,837 (46.98%)||56,461||50,737 (89.86%)|
|Plav||7,016 (78.47%)||1,874 (20.96%)||12,662||8,941 (70.61%)|
|Plužine||716 (24.2%)||2,230 (75.36%)||3,329||2,959 (88.88%)|
|Pljevlja||9,115 (36.07%)||16,009 (63.36%)||27,882||25,268 (90.62%)|
|Podgorica||60,626 (53.22%)||52,345 (45.95%)||129,083||113,915 (88.25%)|
|Rožaje||13,835 (90.79%)||1,314 (8.62%)||19,646||15,239 (77.57%)|
|Tivat||4,916 (55.86%)||3,793 (43.1%)||10,776||8,800 (81.66%)|
|Ulcinj||12,256 (87.64%)||1,592 (11.38%)||17,117||13,985 (81.7%)|
|Herceg-Novi||7,741 (38.28%)||12,284 (60.75%)||24,487||20,220 (88.50%)|
|Cetinje||11,536 (85.21%)||1,818 (13.43%)||15,077||13,538 (89.79%)|
|Šavnik||906 (42.67%)||1,197 (56.38%)||2,306||2,123 (92.06%)|
|Prison||379 (76.57%)||108 (21.82%)||-||495|
The EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, congratulated Montenegro on a "successful referendum" and said the turnout of over 86 percent "confirms the legitimacy of the process." The European Union would, he said, "fully respect" the final result. The EU's commissioner for enlargement, Olli Rehn, said the European Union would put forward proposals for fresh talks with both Montenegro and Serbia. "All sides should respect the result and work together in order to build consensus on the basis of the acceptance of European values and standards. I now expect Belgrade and Podgorica to engage in direct talks on the practical implementation of the results".
In a statement of 23 May, the United States affirmed the OSCE/ODIHR assessment of the election, which stated that "the referendum was conducted in line with OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and other international standards for democratic electoral processes." "We urge Montenegro and Serbia to work together to resolve the practical issues necessary to implement the will of the people of Montenegro as expressed in the referendum.
The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on 23 May stating "It is of fundamental importance for Montenegro and Serbia to enter into constructive, friendly and comprehensive dialogue with the aim of producing mutually acceptable political solutions regarding their future relations," the Foreign Ministry said.
The British Europe Minister Geoff Hoon said he was pleased that the referendum had complied with international standards, pointing out that "the people of Montenegro have expressed a clear desire for an independent state.
A spokesperson for the Foreign ministry of the People's Republic of China indicated "China respects the choice of people of Montenegro and the final result of the referendum" in a regularly-scheduled news conference on 23 May.
The unanimous recognition of the referendum result by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council indicated that widespread international recognition of Montenegro would likely be swift once independence was formally declared.
The prime minister of Kosovo, Agim Çeku, announced that Kosovo would follow Montenegro in the quest for independence, saying "This is the last act of the historic liquidation of Yugoslavia /.../ this year Kosovo will follow in Montenegro's footsteps." Kosovo declared its own independence on 17 February 2008, but is still seen by Serbs as the historical and spiritual heart of Serbia.
Ethnic Serb groups in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina planned to demand a referendum on the independence of the Republika Srpska, according to the Croatian daily Večernji list, citing Branislav Dukić, leader of Spona, a regional Serb organisation. Since such a move could start another war in Bosnia it provoked widespread condemnation from the US, European Union, and other nations. Milorad Dodik, the prime minister of Republika Srpska, subsequently withdrew his calls for a referendum, citing international opposition and the fact that such a referendum would violate the Dayton peace agreement.