Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a representation of the environmental demand for evapotranspiration and represents the evapotranspiration rate of a short green crop, completely shading the ground, of uniform height and with adequate water status in the soil profile. It is a reflection of the energy available to evaporate water, and of the wind available to transport the water vapour from the ground up into the lower atmosphere. Evapotranspiration is said to equal potential evapotranspiration when there is ample water.
Through evapotranspiration, forests reduce water yield, except for in unique ecosystems called cloud forests. Trees in cloud forests condense fog or low clouds into liquid water on their surface, which drips down to the ground. These trees still contribute to evapotranspiration, but often condense more water than they evaporate or transpire.
In areas that are not irrigated, actual evapotranspiration is usually no greater than precipitation, with some buffer in time depending on the soil's ability to hold water. It will usually be less because some water will be lost due to percolation or surface runoff. An exception is areas with high water tables, where capillary action can cause water from the groundwater to rise through the soil matrix to the surface. If potential evapotranspiration is greater than actual precipitation, then soil will dry out, unless irrigation is used.
Evapotranspiration can never be greater than PET, but can be lower if there is not enough water to be evaporated or plants are unable to readily transpire.
The input is precipitation (P), and the exports are evapotranspiration (which is to be estimated), streamflow (Q), and groundwater recharge (D). If the change in storage, precipitation, streamflow, and groundwater recharge are all estimated, the missing flux, ET, can be estimated by rearranging the above equation as follows:
where λE is the energy needed to change the phase of water from liquid to gas, Rn is the net radiation, G is the soil heat flux and H is the sensible heat flux. Using instruments like a scintillometer, soil heat flux plates or radiation meters, the components of the energy balance can be calculated and the energy available for actual evapotranspiration can be solved.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of water that could be evaporated and transpired if there was sufficient water available. This demand incorporates the energy available for evaporation and the ability of the lower atmosphere to transport evaporated moisture away from the land surface. PET is higher in the summer, on less cloudy days, and closer to the equator, because of the higher levels of solar radiation that provides the energy for evaporation. PET is also higher on windy days because the evaporated moisture can be quickly moved from the ground of plants, allowing more evaporation to fill its place.
PET is expressed in terms of a depth of water, and can be graphed during the year (see figure). There is usually a pronounced peak in summer, which results from higher temperatures.
Potential evapotranspiration is usually measured indirectly, from other climatic factors, but also depends on the surface type, such free water (for lakes and oceans), the soil type for bare soil, and the vegetation. Often a value for the potential evapotranspiration is calculated at a nearby climate station on a reference surface, conventionally short grass. This value is called the reference evapotranspiration, and can be converted to a potential evapotranspiration by multiplying with a surface coefficient. In agriculture, this is called a crop coefficient. The difference between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation is used in irrigation scheduling.
Average annual PET is often compared to average annual precipitation, P. The ratio of the two, P/PET, is the aridity index.