Results of the Canadian federal election, 2004: Ontario
Ontario
Ontario was widely regarded as the main battle ground of the 2004 federal election in Canada. Most pundits believed that this is where the election was lost for the Conservative Party. Ontario is home to more than one third of all of Canada's ridings. In the last three elections, right wing vote-splitting has resulted in just six riding losses for the Liberal Party, compared to 299 riding wins. This changed somewhat after the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party, with a number of largely rural seats in going Conservative. The New Democratic Party (NDP) has some support in various pockets in Ontario in the past, but has only won one riding in the last three elections, and one more in a by-election, both in Windsor. The did somewhat better, winning seats in not only in Windsor, but in Hamilton, Downtown Toronto, Ottawa Centre, and in Northern Ontario.
Ottawa
Profile & Notes
Electoral History
With the exception of west and the southern suburban and rural areas, the former Region of Ottawa-Carleton is a Liberal stronghold. A high proportion of francophones and civil servants have made ridings such as Ottawa—Vanier among the safest Liberal seats in the country. The NDP's only historical victory in the area, Ottawa Centre in 1984, was repeated this year, as their former leader Ed Broadbent was elected. They also ran star candidate Monia Mazigh in Ottawa South, but she did not win.
Though recent election results imply otherwise, this region is traditionally a Conservative-Liberal split. Most of the rural anglophone areas in the western, southern, and more recently northern parts of this region lean conservative. The Liberals are strong in the far eastern parts of the region, where there is a significant francophone population. The 1984 election saw the Progressive Conservatives sweep the country and the region, claiming all ridings except the francophone-heavy Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke (held by strong incumbent Len Hopkins). In 1988, the Tories lost four seats to the Liberals, holding onto only Lanark—Carleton and Hastings—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington. In 1993, as the Tories collapsed nationwide, the Liberals won every single riding in this region, and would do so again in 1997 thanks to vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party. Reform's successor, the Canadian Alliance, finally made breakthroughs here in 2000, winning two seats in the upper Ottawa Valley. With the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives, the new Conservative Party of Canada made significant breakthroughs in the anglophone portions of this region.
The central region of southern Ontario—most notably its rural portions in and around Lake Simcoe—is the closest thing one finds to a conservative heartland in Canada's largest province and provincial conservative governments have long relied on this region as the nucleus of their powerbase. Overwhelmingly white, Protestant and agrarian with a large number of social conservatives, the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance's unapologetic conservative populism took root here relatively early, with Simcoe Centre electing a Reform MP in 1993. Vote-splitting with Progressive Conservatives is often cited as the only reason Liberals otherwise swept this region during the Chretien years, and few expected all the Liberal incumbents to be returned this year. Notable Conservative candidates include former leadership contender Belinda Stronach and backroom heavy-hitter Peter Van Loan. The electoral district of Peterborough has long been recognized by political scientists as one of the best bellwether ridings in the country.
Notes: 1 - Shepherd not seeking re-election
2 - Kraft Sloan not seeking re-election
This sprawling and rapidly-growing suburban area to the north and east of the City of Toronto encompasses the eastern portion of what Canadian political watchers in the early nineties dubbed the "905 belt"—a swath of middle class suburban voters roughly corresponding to the same boundaries of the 905 Area Code. 905's buy-in on the provincial level to Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution secured him two conservative majority governments, while its rejection of the Tories in 2003 paved the way for Dalton McGuinty's landslide. In this election the 905 again went solidly for the Liberals, perhaps the Conservatives most important defeat.
Notes: 1 - Grose lost nomination
2 - Caplan not seeking re-election
Since 1993 Central Toronto has been a bastion of Liberal support. It is far more competitive in the 2004 election, however, largely because new NDP leader Jack Layton is a former Toronto city councillor who has reoriented the NDP towards drawing support in the urban centres. Most of the ridings remained safe Liberal seats, with only four or five seats vulnerable to the New Democrats and Conservatives. Eventually only Layton was to win his seat.
Suburban Toronto ridings have collectively racked up the largest Liberal numbers in the country in recent years, with ridings like Scarborough—Rouge River delivering upwards of 80% of the vote to the Chretien Liberals in 2000. The region, however, went uniformly blue during Mulroney's 1984 sweep; four years earlier its changing whims almost single-handedly prevented Joe Clark from re-forming a government. The Conservatives hoped to make progress in this area, but it again went solidly Liberal.
Notes: 1 - Collenette not seeking re-election.
2 - formerly held by Allan Rock.
3 - Eggleton not seeking re-election.
This area is part of the rapidly growing 905 belt, where the Conservatives were hoping for a breakthrough, as it is a traditionally Conservative area. Until their collapse in 1993, the Conservatives only lost two ridings in this area between 1979 and 1988. Despite star candidates, such as former Ontario cabinet minister and federal Conservative leadership candidate Tony Clement, the Conservatives failed to win seats here as in the other parts of suburban Toronto.
Notes: 1 - Hundal replaced previous Conservative candidate Gurjit Grewal after a past conviction for assault came to light.
2 - Assadourian not seeking re-election.
3 - Mahoney lost nomination.
This region has been traditionally Conservative, however the Liberal Party swept the region, along with most of the rest in Ontario, in the last three elections. However, most Liberal victories outside Hamilton proper can be attributed to vote-splitting between the two right-wing parties. The Conservatives had targeted several ridings in the area in this election. While in Hamilton, the NDP was looking for major gains as well. In the end the Liberals stimied both parties with the NDP only gaining a seat.
Notes: 1 - Bryden defected from Liberals in Feb. '04; lost Conservative nomination.
2 - Reed not seeking re-election.
3 - Copps lost nomination.
4 - Pillitteri not seeking re-election.
5 - Tirabassi lost nomination.
This area is traditionally conservative, except for the riding of Brant which has not voted Conservative since 1958. Brant is where the NDP did well with popular MP Derek Blackburn from 1971-1993. However, the NDP have been unable to duplicate this success in this area, and are unlikely to do so. The Conservatives won every other seat except for three seats in 1979, 1980, 1984, and 1988 sweeping the area (except for Brant) in 1984 and 1979. The three seats that went Liberal were Guelph and Kitchener (1980) and Haldimand-Norfolk (1988). Since the collapse of the Conservatives, and vote splitting the Liberals swept this area in 1993, 1997 and 2000. With a united right several seats went to the Conservatives.
Notes: 1 - Stewart not seeking re-election
2 - Finlay not seeking re-election
Southwestern Ontario is traditionally a very Liberal region of Ontario, but is divided between urban and rural. The Liberals do well in the cities of Windsor and London, and Conservatives do well in the rural areas of Kent County, Essex County, Lambton County, Elgin County, and Middlesex County. The NDP also has done well in the past, and currently in Windsor and London, where unions are strong. The NDP was elected in both Windsor-Walkerville and London-Fanshawe in 1984 and 1988, and hold both Windsor seats currently. The Liberas swept all but the riding of Elgin in 1980, the Conservatives swept all but the two Windsor ridings in 1984, and one London riding. The Liberals swept every single riding here in 1993 and 1997, and all but the riding of Windsor-St. Clair in 2000.
Northern Ontario is traditionally a very Liberal area in Ontario, but with historically strong showings by the NDP. The Conservatives have only won a combined total of 9 seats in Northern Ontario since 1979, 4 of which in the very Conservative Parry Sound Muskoka. The NDP has consistently done well here, finishing either first or second, even if it means not winning seats. They are especially strong in Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Nickel Belt, and Sault Ste. Marie, but have also won seats in Kenora-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Nipigon, and Timmins Chapleau. The only bad showing by the Liberals since 1979 came in 1984, where they still managed 3 of 12 seats winning in Algoma, Sudbury, and Cochrane despite a national Conservative landslide.
Notes: 1 - Nault not seeking re-election
2 - Wood not seeking re-election
3 - Dromisky not seeking re-election
4 - Bélair and Serré not seeking re-election
