Mis-predict

United States presidential election, 1936

The United States presidential election of 1936 took place as the Great Depression entered its eighth year. Incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt was still working to push the provisions of his New Deal economic policy through Congress and the courts. However, the New Deal policies he had already enacted, such as Social Security and unemployment benefits, had proven to be highly popular with most Americans. Roosevelt's Republican opponent was Governor Alfred M. Landon of Kansas, a political moderate. Although some political pundits predicted a close race, Roosevelt would win the greatest electoral landslide since the beginning of the current U.S. two-party system in the 1850s, carrying all but 8 electoral votes.

Nominations

Democratic Party nomination

Democratic candidates

Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States from New York
Henry S. Breckinridge, lawyer from New York

Candidates gallery

President Roosevelt faced only one primary opponent other than favorite sons. Henry S. Breckinridge, an anti-New Deal lawyer from New York, filed to run against Roosevelt in four primaries. Breckinridge's test of the popularity of the New Deal among Democrats failed, as he lost by wide margins. In New Jersey, President Roosevelt did not file for the preference vote and lost that primary to Breckinridge, though he did receive 19% of the vote on write-ins. Roosevelt's candidates for delegate swept the race in New Jersey and elsewhere. In other primaries, Breckinridge's best showing was his 15% in Maryland. Overall, Roosevelt received 93% of the primary vote, compared to 2% for Breckinridge

The Democratic Party Convention was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The delegates unanimously renominated incumbents President Franklin Roosevelt and Vice President John Nance Garner. At Roosevelt's request, the two-thirds rule, which had given the South a veto power, was repealed.

The Balloting
Presidential Ballot		Vice Presidential Ballot
Franklin D. Roosevelt	1100	John Nance Garner	1100

Republican Party nomination

The Republican candidates for office were:

Senator William Edgar Borah of Idaho
Leo J. Chassee of West Virginia
Stephen A. Day of Illinois
Senator Lester J. Dickinson of Iowa
Former Governor Warren Green of South Dakota
Former President Herbert C. Hoover of California
Owner and publisher Frank Knox of Illinois
Governor Alf Landon of Kansas
Senate Minority Leader Charles L. McNary of Oregon
Former United States Secretary of the Treasury Ogden L. Mills of New York
Former Governor-General Theodore Roosevelt, Jr. of New York
Senator Frederick Steiwer of Oregon
Social worker Francis Townsend of California
Senator Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan
Alameda County District Attorney Earl Warren of California

Although many candidates sought the Republican nomination, only two, Governor Landon and Senator Borah, were considered to be serious candidates. While favorite sons Knox, Warren, Green, and Day won their respective primaries, the 70-year-old Borah, a well-known progressive and "insurgent," carried the Wisconsin, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Oregon primaries, while also performing quite strongly in Knox's Illinois and Green's South Dakota. However, the party machinery almost uniformly backed Landon, a wealthy businessman and centrist, who won primaries in Massachusetts and New Jersey and dominated in the caucuses and at state party conventions.

With Knox withdrawing as Landon's selection for Vice President and Day, Green, and Warren releasing their delegates, the tally at the convention was:

Alfred Landon 984
William E. Borah 19

Other nominations

Many people expected Huey Long, the colorful Democratic senator from Louisiana, to run as a third-party candidate with his "Share Our Wealth" program as his platform, but his bid was cut short when he was assassinated in September 1935.

It was later revealed by historian and Long biographer T. Harry Williams that the senator had never, in fact, intended to run for the presidency in 1936. Instead, he had been plotting with Father Charles Coughlin, a Catholic priest and populist talk radio personality, to run someone else on the soon-to-be-formed "Share Our Wealth" Party ticket. According to Williams, the idea was that this candidate would split the left-wing vote with President Roosevelt, thereby electing a Republican president and proving the electoral appeal of SOW. Long would then wait four years and run for president as a Democrat in 1940.

Prior to Long's death, leading contenders for the role of the sacrificial 1936 candidate included Senators Burton K. Wheeler (D-Montana) and William E. Borah (R-Idaho) and Governor Floyd B. Olson (FL-Minnesota). After the assassination, however, the two senators lost interest in the idea and Olson was diagnosed with terminal stomach cancer.

Father Coughlin, who had allied himself with Dr. Francis Townsend, a left-wing political activist who was pushing for the creation of an old-age pension system, and Rev. Gerald L.K. Smith, a well-known white supremacist and spokesman for the Christian Right, was eventually forced to run Congressman William Lemke (R-North Dakota) as the candidate of the newly-created "Union Party." Lemke, who lacked the charisma and national stature of the other potential candidates, fared poorly in the election, barely managing 2% of the vote, and the party was dissolved the following year.

William Dudley Pelley, Chief of the Silver Shirts Legion, ran on the ballot in Washington state, managing to secure less than 2,000 votes.

General election

Campaign

The election was held on November 3, 1936.

This election is notable for the Literary Digest poll, which was based on 10 million questionnaires mailed to readers and potential readers; over two million were returned. The Literary Digest, which had correctly predicted the winner of the last 5 elections, announced in its October 31 issue that Landon would be the winner with 370 electoral votes. The cause of this mistake is believed to be due to improper sampling: more Republicans subscribed to the Literary Digest than Democrats, and were thus more likely to vote for Landon than Roosevelt. This mistake by the Literary Digest proved to be devastating to the magazine's credibility, and in fact the magazine went out of existence within a few months of the election.

That same year, George Gallup, an advertising executive who had begun a scientific poll, predicted that Roosevelt would win the election, based on a quota sample of 50,000 people. He also predicted that the Literary Digest would mis-predict the results. His correct predictions made public opinion polling a critical element of elections for journalists and indeed for politicians. The Gallup Poll would become a staple of future presidential elections, and remains one of the most prominent election polling organizations to this day.

Roosevelt won by a landslide, carrying 46 of the 48 states and bringing in many additional Democratic members of Congress. After Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Roosevelt's 60.8% of the popular vote is the second-largest percentage in U.S. history since the nearly unopposed election of James Monroe in 1820 and his 98.5% of the electoral vote is the highest in two-party competition. Roosevelt won the second largest number of electoral votes in history. Some political pundits predicted that the Republicans, whom many voters blamed for the Great Depression, would soon become an extinct political party. However, the Republicans would make a strong comeback in the 1938 congressional elections and would remain a potent force in Congress, although they were not able to win the presidency again until 1952.

The Electoral College results, in which Landon only won Maine and Vermont, inspired Democratic party chairman James Farley to amend the then-conventional political wisdom of "As Maine goes, so goes the country" into "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont." Additionally, a prankster posted a sign on Vermont's border with New Hampshire the day after the 1936 election; it read: "You are now leaving the United States."

Results

Source (Popular Vote):

Source (Electoral Vote):

Results by state

		Franklin Roosevelt Democratic			Alfred Landon Republican			William Lemke Union			Other			State Total
State	electoral votes	#	%	electoral votes	#	%	electoral votes	#	%	electoral votes	#	%	electoral votes	#
Alabama	11	238,136	86.4	11	35,358	12.8	-	551	0.2	-	1,639	0.6	-	275,244	AL
Arizona	3	86,722	69.9	3	33,433	26.9	-	3,307	2.7	-	701	0.6	-	124,163	AZ
Arkansas	9	146,765	81.8	9	32,039	17.9	-	4	0.0	-	615	0.3	-	179,423	AR
California	22	1,766,836	67.0	22	836,431	31.7	-	not on ballot			35,615	1.4	-	2,638,882	CA
Colorado	6	295,021	60.4	6	181,267	37.1	-	9,962	2.0	-	2,434	0.5	-	488,684	CO
Connecticut	8	382,129	55.3	8	278,685	40.4	-	21,805	3.2	-	8,104	1.2	-	690,723	CT
Delaware	3	69,702	54.6	3	57,236	44.9	-	442	0.4	-	223	0.2	-	127,603	DE
Florida	7	249,117	76.1	7	78,248	23.9	-	not on ballot						327,365	FL
Georgia	12	255,364	87.1	12	36,942	12.6	-	141	0.1	-	728	0.3	-	293,175	GA
Idaho	4	125,683	63.0	4	66,256	33.2	-	7,678	3.9	-	not on ballot			199,617	ID
Illinois	29	2,282,999	57.7	29	1,570,393	39.7	-	89,439	2.3	-	13,691	0.4	-	3,956,522	IL
Indiana	14	934,974	56.6	14	691,570	41.9	-	19,407	1.2	-	4,946	0.3	-	1,650,897	IN
Iowa	11	621,756	54.4	11	487,977	42.7	-	29,687	2.6	-	3,313	0.3	-	1,142,733	IA
Kansas	9	464,520	53.7	9	397,727	46.0	-	497	0.1	-	2,770	0.3	-	865,014	KS
Kentucky	11	541,944	58.5	11	369,702	39.9	-	12,501	1.4	-	2,056	0.2	-	926,203	KY
Louisiana	10	292,894	88.8	10	36,791	11.2	-	not on ballot			93	0.0	-	329,778	LA
Maine	5	126,333	41.5	-	168,823	55.5	5	7,581	2.5	-	1,503	0.5	-	304,240	ME
Maryland	8	389,612	62.4	8	231,435	37.0	-	not on ballot			3,849	0.6	-	624,896	MD
Massachusetts	17	942,716	51.2	17	768,613	41.8	-	118,639	6.5	-	10,389	0.6	-	1,840,357	MA
Michigan	19	1,016,794	56.3	19	699,733	38.8	-	75,795	4.2	-	12,776	0.7	-	1,805,098	MI
Minnesota	11	698,811	61.8	11	350,461	31.0	-	74,296	6.6	-	6,407	0.6	-	1,129,975	MN
Mississippi	9	157,318	97.1	9	4,443	2.7	-	not on ballot			329	0.2	-	162,090	MS
Missouri	15	1,111,043	60.8	15	697,891	38.2	-	14,630	0.8	-	5,071	0.3	-	1,828,635	MO
Montana	4	159,690	69.3	4	63,598	27.6	-	5,549	2.4	-	1,675	0.7	-	230,512	MT
Nebraska	7	347,445	57.1	7	247,731	40.7	-	12,847	2.1	-	not on ballot			608,023	NE
Nevada	3	31,925	72.8	3	11,923	27.2	-	not on ballot						43,848	NV
New Hampshire	4	108,460	49.7	4	104,642	48.0	-	4,819	2.2	-	193	0.1	-	218,114	NH
New Jersey	16	1,083,549	59.6	16	719,421	39.6	-	9,405	0.5	-	6,752	0.4	-	1,819,127	NJ
New Mexico	3	106,037	62.7	3	61,727	36.5	-	924	0.6	-	448	0.3	-	169,176	NM
New York	47	3,293,222	58.9	47	2,180,670	39.0	-	not on ballot			122,506	2.2	-	5,596,398	NY
North Carolina	13	616,141	73.4	13	223,283	26.6	-	2	0.0	-	38	0.0	-	839,464	NC
North Dakota	4	163,148	59.6	4	72,751	26.6	-	36,708	13.4	-	1,109	0.4	-	273,716	ND
Ohio	26	1,747,140	58.0	26	1,127,855	37.4	-	132,212	4.4	-	5,382	0.2	-	3,012,589	OH
Oklahoma	11	501,069	66.8	11	245,122	32.7	-	not on ballot			3,549	0.5	-	749,740	OK
Oregon	5	266,733	64.4	5	122,706	29.6	-	21,831	5.3	-	2,751	0.7	-	414,021	OR
Pennsylvania	36	2,353,987	56.9	36	1,690,200	40.8	-	67,468	1.6	-	26,771	0.7	-	4,138,426	PA
Rhode Island	4	165,238	53.1	4	125,031	40.2	-	19,569	6.3	-	1,340	0.4	-	311,178	RI
South Carolina	8	113,791	98.6	8	1,646	1.4	-	not on ballot						115,437	SC
South Dakota	4	160,137	54.0	4	125,977	42.5	-	10,338	3.5	-	not on ballot			296,472	SD
Tennessee	11	328,083	68.9	11	146,520	30.8	-	296	0.1	-	1,639	0.3	-	476,538	TN
Texas	23	734,485	87.1	23	103,874	12.3	-	3,281	0.4	-	1,842	0.2	-	843,482	TX
Utah	4	150,246	69.3	4	64,555	29.8	-	1,121	0.5	-	755	0.4	-	216,677	UT
Vermont	3	62,124	43.2	-	81,023	56.4	3	not on ballot			542	0.4	-	143,689	VT
Virginia	11	234,980	70.2	11	98,336	29.4	-	233	0.1	-	1,041	0.3	-	334,590	VA
Washington	8	459,579	66.4	8	206,892	29.9	-	17,463	2.5	-	8,404	1.2	-	692,338	WA
West Virginia	8	502,582	60.6	8	325,358	39.2	-	not on ballot			2,005	0.2	-	829,945	WV
Wisconsin	12	802,984	63.8	12	380,828	30.3	-	60,297	4.8	-	14,451	1.1	-	1,258,560	WI
Wyoming	3	62,624	60.6	3	38,739	37.5	-	1,653	1.6	-	366	0.4	-	103,382	WY
TOTALS:	531	27,752,648	60.8	523	16,681,862	36.5	8	892,378	2.0	-	320,811	0.7	-	45,647,699
TO WIN:	266

Close states

New Hampshire, 1.75%
Kansas, 7.72%

Bibliography

Kristi Andersen, The Creation of a Democratic Majority: 1928-1936 (1979), statistical
James McGregor Burns, Roosevelt: The Lion and the Fox (1956)
Fadely, James Philip. "Editors, Whistle Stops, and Elephants: the Presidential Campaign of 1936 in Indiana." Indiana Magazine of History 1989 85(2): 101-137. Issn: 0019-6673

William E. Leuchtenburg, "Election of 1936", in Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., ed., A History of American Presidential Elections vol 3 (1971), analysis and primary documents
Donald McCoy, Landon of Kansas (1968)
Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Politics of Upheaval (1960), online version