Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005

The Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005 shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the New South Wales state election, 2007. The table shows seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly arranged in the form of a Mackerras Pendulum. The figures have been calculated on the basis of a redistribution completed in 2005.

A uniform swing against the incumbent Australian Labor Party government would deliver seats on the left of the table to the opposition Liberal and National parties. A swing in the government's favour would deliver seats on the right of the table to Labor.

MPs shown in italics are not contesting the 2007 election.

Very safe seats

District	Member	Party	Margin	District	Member	Party	Margin
Port Maccquarie	Rob Oakeshott	Independent	31.9%
Cabramatta	Reba Meagher	Labor	31.8%
Marrickville	Carmel Tebbutt	Labor	31.6%
Liverpool	Paul Lynch	Labor	30.8%
Northern Tablelands	Richard Torbay	Independent	30.0%
Lakemba	Morris Iemma	Labor	28.8%
Canterbury	Linda Burney	Labor	27.6%
Wollongong	Noreen Hay	Labor	27.4%
Shellharbour	Marianne Saliba	Labor	27.0%
Mount Druitt	Richard Amery	Labor	26.8%
Auburn	Barbara Perry	Labor	26.5%
Bankstown	Tony Stewart	Labor	26.4%
Fairfield	Joe Tripodi	Labor	26.0%
Smithfield	Carl Scully	Labor	25.9%
Blacktown	Paul Gibson	Labor	24.9%
Keira	David Campbell	Labor	24.0%
Heffron	Kristina Keneally	Labor	23.9%
Maroubra	Michael Daley	Labor	23.5%
Macquarie Fields	Steven Chaytor	Labor	22.6%	Albury	Greg Aplin	Liberal	22.5%
Wallsend	John Mills	Labor	20.1%	Davidson	Andrew Humpherson	Liberal	20.9%

Safe seats

District	Member	Party	Margin	District	Member	Party	Margin
Campbelltown	Graham West	Labor	19.6%
Granville	Kim Yeadon	Labor	19.4%
Kogarah	Cherie Burton	Labor	19.3%
East Hills	Alan Ashton	Labor	18.6%
Cessnock	Kerry Hickey	Labor	18.5%
Balmain	Sandra Nori	Labor	17.6%
Swansea	Vacant	Labor	17.1%
Toongabbie	Pam Allan	Labor	16.7%
Mulgoa	Diane Beamer	Labor	16.6%
Rockdale	Frank Sartor	Labor	16.0%
Newcastle	Bryce Gaudry	Labor	15.4%	Murrumbidgee	Adrian Piccoli	National	18.9%
Strathfield	Virginia Judge	Labor	14.9%	Ku-ring-gai	Barry O'Farrell	Liberal	18.8%
Blue Mountains	Bob Debus	Labor	14.8%	Sydney	Clover Moore	Independent	15.0%
Ryde	John Watkins	Labor	14.7%	Barwon	Ian Slack-Smith	National	14.7%
Oatley	Kevin Greene	Labor	14.2%	Hawkesbury	Steven Pringle	Liberal	14.6%
Parramatta	Tanya Gadiel	Labor	13.5%	Myall Lakes	John Turner	National	13.9%
Bathurst	Gerard Martin	Labor	13.4%	Wakehurst	Brad Hazzard	Liberal	13.2%
Charlestown	Matthew Morris	Labor	13.3%	Wagga Wagga	Daryl Maguire	Liberal	12.7%
Coogee	Paul Pearce	Labor	13.2%	Burrinjuck	Katrina Hodgkinson	National	12.4%
Riverstone	John Aquilina	Labor	13.1%	North Shore	Jillian Skinner	Liberal	12.3%
Heathcote	Paul McLeay	Labor	12.3%	Coffs Harbour	Andrew Fraser	National	11.9%
Wyong	Paul Crittenden	Labor	12.2%	Vaucluse	Peter Debnam	Liberal	10.9%
Lake Macquarie	Jeff Hunter	Labor	11.6%	Castle Hill	Michael Richardson	Liberal	10.8%

Fairly safe seats

District	Member	Party	Margin	District	Member	Party	Margin
Maitland	John Price	Labor	9.8%
The Entrance	Grant McBride	Labor	9.6%
Miranda	Barry Collier	Labor	8.9%
Drummoyne	Angela D'Amore	Labor	8.8%
Menai	Alison Megarrity	Labor	8.4%	Oxley	Andrew Stoner	National	9.7%
Camden	Geoff Corrigan	Labor	8.3%	Ballina	Don Page	National	9.1%
Londonderry	Allan Shearan	Labor	8.2%	Cronulla	Malcolm Kerr	Liberal	8.6%
Gosford	Marie Andrews	Labor	8.2%	Lismore	Thomas George	National	8.1%
Kiama	Matt Brown	Labor	8.1%	Epping	Andrew Tink	Liberal	7.6%
Port Stephens	John Bartlett	Labor	7.2%	Willoughby	Gladys Berejiklian	Liberal	7.4%
Penrith	Karyn Paluzzano	Labor	6.6%	Upper Hunter	George Souris	National	7.2%

Marginal seats

District	Member	Party	Margin	District	Member	Party	Margin
				Orange	Russell Turner	National	5.9%
				Clarence	Steve Cansdell	National	5.3%
				Bega	Andrew Constance	Liberal	4.7%
Pittwater	Alex McTaggart	Independent	5.4%	Goulburn	Peta Seaton	Liberal	4.5%
Wollondilly	New seat	Labor	4.6%	Hornsby	Judy Hopwood	Liberal	4.2%
Monaro	Steve Whan	Labor	4.4%	Baulkham Hills	Wayne Merton	Liberal	4.0%
Tweed	Neville Newell	Labor	4.0%	Lane Cove	Anthony Roberts	Liberal	2.8%
Tamworth	Peter Draper	Independent	1.9%	South Coast	Shelley Hancock	Liberal	1.6%
Manly	David Barr	Independent	1.2%	Murray-Darling	Peter Black	Labor	-1.4%
Dubbo	Dawn Fardell	Independent	0.3%	Terrigal	Chris Hartcher	Liberal	0.6%

Independents

A version of the table published in The Australian on February 19, 2007 showed all seats as effectively Coalition or Labor depending on the favoured major party among the electorate's voters. On this interpretation, Clover Moore's seat of Sydney is shown on the government side, alone among the seven sitting independents.

Notes