The theory of war cycles holds that wars happen in cycles.
The cycles of war
The forerunner of the study of war cycles was Edward R Dewey
with Quincy Wright
's monumental A Study of War
adding impetus to the discipline. The credibility of the study of cycles was frequently questioned, as this type of inquiry attracts persons with marginal credibility and interest in paranormal issues. However, with advent of computer algorithms
minimizing the dampening effect
affecting the abstracted oscillations and facilitating the detection of stochastic drifts
, the study of cycles is subject to renewed interest (see, e.g., * History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies / Ed. by Peter Turchin et al.
Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. ISBN 5484010020).
Inflection points of war cycles
In the judgment of the Nuremberg Tribunal, war of aggression is the supreme crime and there is hardly other issue that is more relevant to the social sciences than the study of the decision-making process when a person or a group of persons decides that another group of people must face death. Historians speculated about this decision-making process for centuries without reaching consensus, as wars are complex phenomena with multiple determinants. The decision to initiate a war marks an inflection point of the war-peace cycle and the decision to cease hostilities marks the end of a particular cycle. Comparative studies of war cycles can contribute to explication of facets of this decision-making process. Most relevant of these facets are those that help us to identify the preventable factors influencing the decision to initiate (and to terminate) a war.
Quantitative studies of bellicosity of the Western civilization and Confucian civilization of the East was pioneered by Lewis Fry Richardson. Richardson's studies led him to conclusion that "Confucian-Taoist-Buddhist religion of China stands out conspicuously as being either itself a pacifier, or else associated with one" and that "it seems probable that the comparative peacefulness of China prior to 1911 was the result of instruction, and in particular of Confucian instruction."
Richardson's findings were based on data spanning about a century. Study by Krus, Nelsen, & Webb (1998) lengthened his perspective for the wars of the Western civilization by about 3 centuries (Fig. 1) and for the Eastern Civilization by about 17 centuries (Fig. 2). In Fig. 2, the 220 - 618 time interval corresponds to the period in Chinese history, called the Period of Disunion (also called the Chinese Dark Ages), when Confucius' teachings were abandoned. Krus et al. (1998) concluded that "In the Empire of China, when the Confucian philosophy was predominant, the peace lasted significantly longer than in the West. When Confucian teachings were abandoned, the frequency of warfare approximated that observed for the Western countries."
For another comparative study that specifies a mathematical model of war cycles and tests it cross-culturally and cross-historically see Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends Note that this study tries to connect the war cycles with long-term trend dynamics.
Pacific ethics of the Western civilization are based to a degree on ethical
teachings of monotheistic
religions. These religious canons are quite effective in preventing violence by individuals, but less successful in preventing the collective violence.
Results of the comparative studies of the war cycles support Lewis Richardson's observations of the relative peacefulness of China prior to 1911. Richardson asks the question:
- "If China could thus be made peaceable by Confucian instruction in pacific ethics, why not the whole world?"
Richardson's conclusions are echoed by Krus and Webb (2001):
- "As the religious factors are paramount in shaping value systems, one may look for the alternatives to the mainstream religions, to systems that erect barriers against the group-sponsored violence: Eastern religions and philosophies as Confucianism, Buddhism and Hinduism, modern Black and Latin American liberation theologies of James H. Cone and Gustavo Gutierrez, and secular value systems perhaps best represented by Noam Chomsky."
Experience of a large segment of humanity over a time interval spanning millennia indicates that a peaceful civilization can exist without subscribing to religious precepts of monotheistic religions and that a secular ethic system, epitomized by that of Confucius, is likely one of the factors lessening the probability of a decision to initiate a war.
- Dewey, E.R. (1951) The 57-year cycle in international conflict. Cycles, 2, 1, 4-6.
- Dewey, E.R. (1952) The 142-year cycle in war. Cycles. 3, 6, 201-204.
- Dewey, E.R. (1967) Systematic Reconnaissance of Cycles in War. Cycles, January 1967. (Request reprint)
- Ellis, M.H. (1997) Unholy alliance: religion and atrocity in our time. Minneapolis: Fortress Press.
- Korotayev, A., Malkov, A., & Khaltourina, D. (2006) Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5484005590
- Korotayev, A. & Khaltourina D. (2006) Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5484005604
- Krus, D. J. & Blackman, H. S. (1980) Time scale factor as related to theories of societal change. Psychological Reports, 46, 95-102. (Request reprint)
- Krus, D.J., & Ko, H.O. (1983) Algorithm for autocorrelation analysis of secular trends. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 43, 821-828. (Request reprint).
- Turchin, P., et al., eds. (2007). History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. ISBN 5484010020
- McMaster, Jr., R. E. (1978). Cycles of War: The next six years.
- Krus, D.J., Nelsen, E.A. & Webb, J.M. (1998) Recurrence of war in classical East and West civilizations. Psychological Reports, 83, 139-143 (Request reprint)
- Krus, D. J. & Webb, J. M. (2001) Fur oder gegen ein militarisches Eingreifen: Ist die Einstellung zum Krieg eine Variable der Gesinnung oder des sitationsbedingten Gemutszustands? Zeitschrift fur Sozialpsychologie und Gruppendynamik in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. 26.Jg. Heft 2, 3-8 (Request reprint in English, in German).
- Richardson, L.F. (1960) Statistics of deadly quarrels. Pacific Grove, CA: Boxwood Press.
- Turchin P. 2006. War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations. Pi Press.
- Wright, Q. (1965) A study of war. (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.